Is Solar Worth It in Your State? 2026 Payback Ranked
The federal residential solar tax credit (Section 25D) expired on December 31, 2025. That added 2–3 years to payback in most states. This ranking shows estimated payback for a typical 6 kW system at $3.00/W with 70% self-consumption, using each state's real electricity rate (EIA, 2026) and solar production (NREL PVWatts v8), plus SREC income where it exists.
| Rank | State | Rate (¢/kWh) | Production (kWh/kW) | Net Metering | SREC | Est. Payback | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | New Jersey | 23.3 | 1306 | Full retail | $85/MWh | ~0.6 yr | GOOD |
| #2 | Illinois | 19.1 | 1290 | Full retail | $75/MWh | ~0.7 yr | GOOD |
| #3 | Maryland | 21.2 | 1290 | Full retail | $65/MWh | ~0.7 yr | GOOD |
| #4 | District of Columbia | 24.6 | 1300 | Full retail | $40/MWh | ~0.7 yr | GOOD |
| #5 | Massachusetts | 30.1 | 1302 | Full retail | $30/MWh | ~0.6 yr | GOOD |
| #6 | Delaware | 17.4 | 1330 | Full retail | $30/MWh | ~0.9 yr | GOOD |
| #7 | Pennsylvania | 20.8 | 1344 | Full retail | $25/MWh | ~0.8 yr | GOOD |
| #8 | Ohio | 18.4 | 1210 | Full retail | $8/MWh | ~1.1 yr | GOOD |
| #9 | Maine | 29.7 | 1319 | Full retail | — | ~0.7 yr | GOOD |
| #10 | Rhode Island | 29.5 | 1294 | Full retail | — | ~0.7 yr | GOOD |
| #11 | Connecticut | 29.8 | 1252 | Full retail | — | ~0.7 yr | GOOD |
| #12 | New York | 29.2 | 1214 | Full retail | — | ~0.7 yr | GOOD |
| #13 | New Hampshire | 26.8 | 1259 | Full retail | — | ~0.8 yr | GOOD |
| #14 | Vermont | 23.9 | 1222 | Full retail | — | ~0.9 yr | GOOD |
| #15 | Colorado | 16.5 | 1500 | Full retail | — | ~1.0 yr | GOOD |
| #16 | Alaska | 26.7 | 922 | Full retail | — | ~1.0 yr | GOOD |
| #17 | New Mexico | 14.8 | 1650 | Full retail | — | ~1.0 yr | GOOD |
| #18 | Florida | 15.4 | 1520 | Full retail | — | ~1.1 yr | GOOD |
| #19 | Wisconsin | 18.9 | 1240 | Full retail | — | ~1.1 yr | GOOD |
| #20 | Virginia | 16.6 | 1370 | Full retail | — | ~1.1 yr | GOOD |
| #21 | Kansas | 15.1 | 1430 | Full retail | — | ~1.2 yr | GOOD |
| #22 | Georgia | 14.9 | 1430 | Full retail | — | ~1.2 yr | GOOD |
| #23 | North Carolina | 14.9 | 1400 | Full retail | — | ~1.2 yr | GOOD |
| #24 | Minnesota | 15.7 | 1290 | Full retail | — | ~1.3 yr | GOOD |
| #25 | Hawaii | 44.6 | 1650 | Net billing | — | ~1.3 yr | GOOD |
| #26 | Oklahoma | 13.1 | 1450 | Full retail | — | ~1.3 yr | GOOD |
| #27 | West Virginia | 15.4 | 1220 | Full retail | — | ~1.4 yr | GOOD |
| #28 | South Dakota | 14.2 | 1310 | Full retail | — | ~1.4 yr | GOOD |
| #29 | Oregon | 15.1 | 1200 | Full retail | — | ~1.4 yr | GOOD |
| #30 | Arkansas | 13.3 | 1350 | Full retail | — | ~1.4 yr | GOOD |
| #31 | Montana | 13.6 | 1300 | Full retail | — | ~1.4 yr | GOOD |
| #32 | Iowa | 13.3 | 1280 | Full retail | — | ~1.5 yr | GOOD |
| #33 | Nebraska | 12.6 | 1320 | Full retail | — | ~1.5 yr | GOOD |
| #34 | Missouri | 12.8 | 1290 | Full retail | — | ~1.5 yr | GOOD |
| #35 | Washington | 14.3 | 1088 | Full retail | — | ~1.6 yr | GOOD |
| #36 | North Dakota | 11.9 | 1300 | Full retail | — | ~1.6 yr | GOOD |
| #37 | Utah | 13.1 | 1500 | Net billing | — | ~1.7 yr | GOOD |
| #38 | Nevada | 14.0 | 1650 | Net billing | — | ~1.7 yr | GOOD |
| #39 | Michigan | 20.7 | 1180 | Net billing | — | ~1.8 yr | GOOD |
| #40 | Arizona | 15.6 | 1755 | Net billing | — | ~2.1 yr | GOOD |
| #41 | Indiana | 17.0 | 1220 | Net billing | — | ~2.3 yr | GOOD |
| #42 | South Carolina | 16.2 | 1400 | Net billing | — | ~2.8 yr | GOOD |
| #43 | Texas | 16.1 | 1421 | Mixed | — | ~3.0 yr | GOOD |
| #44 | California | 32.8 | 1560 | Net billing | — | ~3.3 yr | GOOD |
| #45 | Mississippi | 15.5 | 1400 | Mixed | — | ~3.6 yr | GOOD |
| #46 | Louisiana | 13.5 | 1400 | Mixed | — | ~3.6 yr | GOOD |
| #47 | Wyoming | 13.7 | 1400 | Mixed | — | ~3.6 yr | GOOD |
| #48 | Alabama | 16.6 | 1450 | Avoided cost | — | ~4.4 yr | GOOD |
| #49 | Tennessee | 13.9 | 1350 | Avoided cost | — | ~4.7 yr | GOOD |
| #50 | Kentucky | 14.4 | 1300 | Avoided cost | — | ~4.9 yr | GOOD |
| #51 | Idaho | 12.5 | 1280 | Avoided cost | — | ~5.0 yr | GOOD |
Key Takeaways
- Fastest payback clusters in high-electricity-rate states: Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Maine — 4–9 years.
- Slowest payback is in cheap-power states: Idaho, North Dakota, Missouri, Nebraska — 15–20+ years.
- SREC states (NJ, MD, IL) get a real income boost that shortens payback by 1–3 years.
- NEM 3.0 states (CA, NV, AZ) export at wholesale-style rates, so batteries and self-consumption matter more than system size.
Frequently asked about solar payback
Is solar still worth it after the federal tax credit expired in 2026?
In most states payback is now 2–3 years longer without the Section 25D credit, but solar is still clearly worth it in high-electricity-rate states such as Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, and Connecticut, which pay back in roughly 4–9 years. In very cheap-power states the case is marginal and depends on state incentives or long-term ownership.
What solar payback period is considered good?
A payback of about 9 years or less is excellent, 9–13 years is reasonable, and 13+ years is long — worth considering only with strong state incentives or plans to stay in the home for many years. These thresholds reflect typical 25–30 year panel warranties.
Which states have the fastest solar payback in 2026?
The fastest payback clusters in high-rate states: Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, and Maine, generally 4–9 years. The slowest are cheap-power states such as Idaho, North Dakota, Missouri, and Nebraska at 15–20+ years.
How do SRECs and net metering affect solar payback?
Full-retail net metering plus SREC income (New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois) can shorten payback by 1–3 years. Under NEM 3.0-style rules (California, Nevada, Arizona) exports are credited near wholesale rates, so batteries and higher self-consumption matter more than raw system size.
Methodology: 6 kW system, $3.00/W gross, ~15% average state-incentive offset on cost, 70% self-consumption, 3%/yr rate escalation, 0.5%/yr degradation. Rates: EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.B (2026 YTD May). Production: NREL PVWatts v8 (representative city per state). SREC: 2026 market prices. Sources dated — verify before deciding.
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Free tools and 50-state data that answer the next question.