Data last verified: August 2026
Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace — 15-Year Cost
Direct answer
Compare the 15-year total cost of a heat pump against a gas furnace. We use your state electricity rate (EIA 2026) and a gas price you can override, plus the installed cost of each system and their efficiencies (HSPF2 and AFUE). In high-electricity-rate states a heat pump often wins; in cheap-gas states a furnace can still be cheaper — the calculator shows which, for your numbers.
What drives the result
- Electricity rate: a heat pump moves the heating load onto electricity, so high ¢/kWh states favor the furnace unless you have solar.
- Gas price: where natural gas is cheap (many central/southern states), a furnace is hard to beat on operating cost.
- Efficiency: HSPF2 8–10 heat pumps convert ~2.5–3× the energy a resistance heater would; AFUE 0.80–0.98 furnaces lose 2–20% up the flue.
- Dual role: the heat pump also replaces your air conditioner, removing a separate cooling cost not counted here — that further improves its economics.
Disclaimer: Model estimate only. Real loads depend on home envelope, thermostat setpoints, and fuel escalation. Verify gas and electricity rates with your bills. Not HVAC, tax, or financial advice.
Data sources & methodology
- U.S. EIAResidential electricity rates and natural-gas prices by state (2026).
- DOE / ENERGY STARHSPF2 and AFUE efficiency ratings for heat pumps and furnaces.
Methodology and citations are maintained by the PVFig editorial team. Where an official schedule is not yet loaded, results are shown as model estimates and the source is stated as a reference.